{
 "slug": "larry-williams-9-1",
 "name": "Larry Williams 9.1 and 9.2 setups",
 "author": "attributed to Larry Williams (as commonly taught in Brazil)",
 "family": "trend-following",
 "timeframe": "daily bars (built from H1)",
 "direction": "long only",
 "rules": [
  "9.1: when the exponential moving average of daily closes turns up, place a buy stop one tick above that day's high; protective stop at that day's low.",
  "9.2: while the average is rising, if a day closes below the previous day's low, place a buy stop above that day's high; same stop.",
  "Exit (our simplification): the close of the day on which the average turns down, or the protective stop. Many traders instead exit when that day’s low is broken."
 ],
 "verdict": "rejected",
 "cause": "Thin edge that does not survive the second half: on the Nasdaq 100 the default 9.1 made almost all of its money in 2014-2021 and lost in 2022-2026; 9.2 lost money on the S&P 500 in every setting tested (hypothetical backtest).",
 "stage": "Out-of-sample",
 "publisher": "Empirical Quant",
 "url": "https://empiricalquant.com/data/graveyard/larry-williams-9-1.json",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 (cite Empirical Quant with a link)",
 "period": {
  "from": "2014-06-01",
  "to": "2026-10-01"
 },
 "hypothetical": true,
 "method": "MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester, broker CFD prices, one position of fixed size, no leverage, no compounding. Returns are the sum of trade results as % of the position value, after spread, commission and overnight financing (indices 6.12%/year, gold 5%/year on longs). In-sample/out-of-sample split: 2014-2021 vs 2022-2026. Every setting in the grid is shown, not only the best one.",
 "markets": [
  {
   "market": "Nasdaq 100",
   "symbol": "NAS100",
   "default_settings": {
    "setup (1 = 9.1, 2 = 9.2)": "9.1",
    "EMA length (days)": "9"
   },
   "default": {
    "trades": 238,
    "win_rate_pct": 35.3,
    "profit_factor": 1.2,
    "return_pct": 39.9,
    "max_dd_pct": 25.3,
    "return_to_dd": 1.58,
    "return_2014_2021_pct": 43.0,
    "return_2022_2026_pct": -3.1,
    "avg_trade_pct": 0.168,
    "time_in_market_pct": 49.1,
    "longest_losing_streak": 14,
    "years": [
     {
      "year": 2014,
      "return_pct": 6.5,
      "trades": 9
     },
     {
      "year": 2015,
      "return_pct": -1.8,
      "trades": 19
     },
     {
      "year": 2016,
      "return_pct": 1.8,
      "trades": 15
     },
     {
      "year": 2017,
      "return_pct": 9.1,
      "trades": 13
     },
     {
      "year": 2018,
      "return_pct": -4.6,
      "trades": 24
     },
     {
      "year": 2019,
      "return_pct": 8.9,
      "trades": 16
     },
     {
      "year": 2020,
      "return_pct": 21.3,
      "trades": 21
     },
     {
      "year": 2021,
      "return_pct": 1.9,
      "trades": 21
     },
     {
      "year": 2022,
      "return_pct": -9.4,
      "trades": 18
     },
     {
      "year": 2023,
      "return_pct": 21.7,
      "trades": 17
     },
     {
      "year": 2024,
      "return_pct": 3.0,
      "trades": 27
     },
     {
      "year": 2025,
      "return_pct": -0.5,
      "trades": 20
     },
     {
      "year": 2026,
      "return_pct": -17.9,
      "trades": 18
     }
    ]
   },
   "buy_and_hold": {
    "return_pct": 716.5,
    "max_dd_pct": 35.5,
    "years": [
     {
      "year": 2014,
      "return_pct": 13.4
     },
     {
      "year": 2015,
      "return_pct": 9.2
     },
     {
      "year": 2016,
      "return_pct": 5.0
     },
     {
      "year": 2017,
      "return_pct": 31.5
     },
     {
      "year": 2018,
      "return_pct": -0.8
     },
     {
      "year": 2019,
      "return_pct": 38.0
     },
     {
      "year": 2020,
      "return_pct": 47.3
     },
     {
      "year": 2021,
      "return_pct": 26.9
     },
     {
      "year": 2022,
      "return_pct": -32.9
     },
     {
      "year": 2023,
      "return_pct": 53.5
     },
     {
      "year": 2024,
      "return_pct": 25.0
     },
     {
      "year": 2025,
      "return_pct": 19.9
     },
     {
      "year": 2026,
      "return_pct": 21.0
     }
    ],
    "note": "price change of the daily close, no financing cost"
   },
   "grid": {
    "row": "setup (1 = 9.1, 2 = 9.2)",
    "col": "EMA length (days)",
    "cells": [
     {
      "row": "9.1",
      "col": "7",
      "trades": 269,
      "profit_factor": 1.23,
      "return_to_dd": 1.94,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 33.9,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 16.9
     },
     {
      "row": "9.1",
      "col": "9",
      "trades": 238,
      "profit_factor": 1.2,
      "return_to_dd": 1.58,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 43.0,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": -3.1
     },
     {
      "row": "9.1",
      "col": "12",
      "trades": 192,
      "profit_factor": 1.28,
      "return_to_dd": 2.25,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 46.0,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 3.4
     },
     {
      "row": "9.1",
      "col": "15",
      "trades": 166,
      "profit_factor": 1.34,
      "return_to_dd": 2.78,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 47.1,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 5.2
     },
     {
      "row": "9.2",
      "col": "7",
      "trades": 45,
      "profit_factor": 0.86,
      "return_to_dd": -0.4,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 7.0,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": -11.7
     },
     {
      "row": "9.2",
      "col": "9",
      "trades": 50,
      "profit_factor": 0.77,
      "return_to_dd": -0.46,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 5.5,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": -14.2
     },
     {
      "row": "9.2",
      "col": "12",
      "trades": 59,
      "profit_factor": 1.2,
      "return_to_dd": 0.56,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 8.0,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 0.5
     },
     {
      "row": "9.2",
      "col": "15",
      "trades": 62,
      "profit_factor": 1.15,
      "return_to_dd": 0.6,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 7.4,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": -0.2
     }
    ],
    "profitable_in_both_halves": "4 of 8",
    "median_profit_factor": 1.2
   },
   "tested": "2026-10-11"
  },
  {
   "market": "S&P 500",
   "symbol": "SP500",
   "default_settings": {
    "setup (1 = 9.1, 2 = 9.2)": "9.1",
    "EMA length (days)": "9"
   },
   "default": {
    "trades": 219,
    "win_rate_pct": 33.8,
    "profit_factor": 1.23,
    "return_pct": 32.8,
    "max_dd_pct": 19.9,
    "return_to_dd": 1.65,
    "return_2014_2021_pct": 18.5,
    "return_2022_2026_pct": 14.3,
    "avg_trade_pct": 0.15,
    "time_in_market_pct": 44.8,
    "longest_losing_streak": 11,
    "years": [
     {
      "year": 2014,
      "return_pct": -4.8,
      "trades": 7
     },
     {
      "year": 2015,
      "return_pct": -2.6,
      "trades": 17
     },
     {
      "year": 2016,
      "return_pct": 1.5,
      "trades": 18
     },
     {
      "year": 2017,
      "return_pct": -5.7,
      "trades": 16
     },
     {
      "year": 2018,
      "return_pct": 3.6,
      "trades": 18
     },
     {
      "year": 2019,
      "return_pct": 9.8,
      "trades": 13
     },
     {
      "year": 2020,
      "return_pct": 14.1,
      "trades": 22
     },
     {
      "year": 2021,
      "return_pct": 2.6,
      "trades": 15
     },
     {
      "year": 2022,
      "return_pct": -11.7,
      "trades": 20
     },
     {
      "year": 2023,
      "return_pct": 4.3,
      "trades": 18
     },
     {
      "year": 2024,
      "return_pct": 12.9,
      "trades": 20
     },
     {
      "year": 2025,
      "return_pct": 1.9,
      "trades": 18
     },
     {
      "year": 2026,
      "return_pct": 6.9,
      "trades": 17
     }
    ]
   },
   "buy_and_hold": {
    "return_pct": 298.7,
    "max_dd_pct": 35.4,
    "years": [
     {
      "year": 2014,
      "return_pct": 7.0
     },
     {
      "year": 2015,
      "return_pct": 0.0
     },
     {
      "year": 2016,
      "return_pct": 8.5
     },
     {
      "year": 2017,
      "return_pct": 19.4
     },
     {
      "year": 2018,
      "return_pct": -6.0
     },
     {
      "year": 2019,
      "return_pct": 29.0
     },
     {
      "year": 2020,
      "return_pct": 16.1
     },
     {
      "year": 2021,
      "return_pct": 27.1
     },
     {
      "year": 2022,
      "return_pct": -19.5
     },
     {
      "year": 2023,
      "return_pct": 24.0
     },
     {
      "year": 2024,
      "return_pct": 23.5
     },
     {
      "year": 2025,
      "return_pct": 16.2
     },
     {
      "year": 2026,
      "return_pct": 12.1
     }
    ],
    "note": "price change of the daily close, no financing cost"
   },
   "grid": {
    "row": "setup (1 = 9.1, 2 = 9.2)",
    "col": "EMA length (days)",
    "cells": [
     {
      "row": "9.1",
      "col": "7",
      "trades": 252,
      "profit_factor": 1.09,
      "return_to_dd": 0.61,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": -0.7,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 14.7
     },
     {
      "row": "9.1",
      "col": "9",
      "trades": 219,
      "profit_factor": 1.23,
      "return_to_dd": 1.65,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 18.5,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 14.3
     },
     {
      "row": "9.1",
      "col": "12",
      "trades": 201,
      "profit_factor": 1.14,
      "return_to_dd": 0.89,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 21.2,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": -1.4
     },
     {
      "row": "9.1",
      "col": "15",
      "trades": 180,
      "profit_factor": 1.16,
      "return_to_dd": 1.08,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 4.3,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 16.4
     },
     {
      "row": "9.2",
      "col": "7",
      "trades": 60,
      "profit_factor": 0.62,
      "return_to_dd": -0.75,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": -12.9,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 0.8
     },
     {
      "row": "9.2",
      "col": "9",
      "trades": 64,
      "profit_factor": 0.91,
      "return_to_dd": -0.29,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": -3.8,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 0.9
     },
     {
      "row": "9.2",
      "col": "12",
      "trades": 68,
      "profit_factor": 0.85,
      "return_to_dd": -0.44,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": -5.8,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 0.6
     },
     {
      "row": "9.2",
      "col": "15",
      "trades": 71,
      "profit_factor": 0.81,
      "return_to_dd": -0.45,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": -6.6,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": -1.1
     }
    ],
    "profitable_in_both_halves": "2 of 8",
    "median_profit_factor": 1.0
   },
   "tested": "2026-10-11"
  },
  {
   "market": "Gold",
   "symbol": "XAUUSD",
   "default_settings": {
    "setup (1 = 9.1, 2 = 9.2)": "9.1",
    "EMA length (days)": "9"
   },
   "default": {
    "trades": 156,
    "win_rate_pct": 29.5,
    "profit_factor": 1.39,
    "return_pct": 38.5,
    "max_dd_pct": 30.0,
    "return_to_dd": 1.28,
    "return_2014_2021_pct": -18.8,
    "return_2022_2026_pct": 57.3,
    "avg_trade_pct": 0.247,
    "time_in_market_pct": 30.3,
    "longest_losing_streak": 10,
    "years": [
     {
      "year": 2014,
      "return_pct": -1.7,
      "trades": 2
     },
     {
      "year": 2015,
      "return_pct": -4.3,
      "trades": 11
     },
     {
      "year": 2016,
      "return_pct": 9.6,
      "trades": 10
     },
     {
      "year": 2017,
      "return_pct": -0.5,
      "trades": 5
     },
     {
      "year": 2018,
      "return_pct": -2.5,
      "trades": 13
     },
     {
      "year": 2019,
      "return_pct": -7.1,
      "trades": 16
     },
     {
      "year": 2020,
      "return_pct": -8.8,
      "trades": 17
     },
     {
      "year": 2021,
      "return_pct": -3.4,
      "trades": 15
     },
     {
      "year": 2022,
      "return_pct": 0.6,
      "trades": 20
     },
     {
      "year": 2023,
      "return_pct": 12.8,
      "trades": 17
     },
     {
      "year": 2024,
      "return_pct": 16.1,
      "trades": 13
     },
     {
      "year": 2025,
      "return_pct": 17.2,
      "trades": 7
     },
     {
      "year": 2026,
      "return_pct": 10.6,
      "trades": 10
     }
    ]
   },
   "buy_and_hold": {
    "return_pct": 235.0,
    "max_dd_pct": 26.6,
    "years": [
     {
      "year": 2014,
      "return_pct": -2.0
     },
     {
      "year": 2015,
      "return_pct": -13.2
     },
     {
      "year": 2016,
      "return_pct": 8.6
     },
     {
      "year": 2017,
      "return_pct": 13.1
     },
     {
      "year": 2018,
      "return_pct": -1.5
     },
     {
      "year": 2019,
      "return_pct": 18.3
     },
     {
      "year": 2020,
      "return_pct": 25.1
     },
     {
      "year": 2021,
      "return_pct": -3.7
     },
     {
      "year": 2022,
      "return_pct": -0.3
     },
     {
      "year": 2023,
      "return_pct": 13.1
     },
     {
      "year": 2024,
      "return_pct": 27.2
     },
     {
      "year": 2025,
      "return_pct": 64.6
     },
     {
      "year": 2026,
      "return_pct": -3.3
     }
    ],
    "note": "price change of the daily close, no financing cost"
   },
   "grid": {
    "row": "setup (1 = 9.1, 2 = 9.2)",
    "col": "EMA length (days)",
    "cells": [
     {
      "row": "9.1",
      "col": "7",
      "trades": 178,
      "profit_factor": 1.29,
      "return_to_dd": 1.69,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": -14.6,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 44.9
     },
     {
      "row": "9.1",
      "col": "9",
      "trades": 156,
      "profit_factor": 1.39,
      "return_to_dd": 1.28,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": -18.8,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 57.3
     },
     {
      "row": "9.1",
      "col": "12",
      "trades": 145,
      "profit_factor": 1.23,
      "return_to_dd": 1.38,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": -5.7,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 27.9
     },
     {
      "row": "9.1",
      "col": "15",
      "trades": 131,
      "profit_factor": 1.25,
      "return_to_dd": 1.73,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 3.2,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 21.0
     },
     {
      "row": "9.2",
      "col": "7",
      "trades": 24,
      "profit_factor": 1.98,
      "return_to_dd": 3.21,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 3.7,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 8.1
     },
     {
      "row": "9.2",
      "col": "9",
      "trades": 35,
      "profit_factor": 2.49,
      "return_to_dd": 4.15,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": 2.6,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 21.2
     },
     {
      "row": "9.2",
      "col": "12",
      "trades": 38,
      "profit_factor": 1.63,
      "return_to_dd": 1.44,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": -3.1,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 17.0
     },
     {
      "row": "9.2",
      "col": "15",
      "trades": 41,
      "profit_factor": 1.5,
      "return_to_dd": 1.02,
      "return_2014_2021_pct": -0.5,
      "return_2022_2026_pct": 12.6
     }
    ],
    "profitable_in_both_halves": "3 of 8",
    "median_profit_factor": 1.44
   },
   "tested": "2026-10-11"
  }
 ],
 "exported": "2026-11-11"
}